Labor shortage in Anchorage, Alaska
The prevalence of signs all across Anchorage, Alaska announcing “Now Hiring”, “Help Wanted”, “Apply Now” caused me to wonder: Where have all the workers gone?
Data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics show that in Alaska by the spring of 2022 the monthly Job Openings rate was 8.2 and the Hires rate was 6.7. Meaning there were more job openings than there was workforce to hire. This difference may not seem like much until you compare these values to pre-pandemic levels. Pre-pandemic, from 2012 to 2019, the average monthly Job Openings rate and the average monthly Hires rate were 5.1 and 5.5 respectively. Historically, the two rates run quite close to one another. So, the pandemic and perhaps other factors appear to have upended things in Alaska.
Baby Boomers Retiring
An article published by the Society for Human Resource Management suggests at least a partial answer: “Employers Face Hiring Challenge as Boomers Retire in Record Numbers”; June 28, 2021. Could Baby Boomers retiring explain, even partially, all the help-wanted signs?
Data from State of Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development, Research and Analysis unit sheds some light on this question.
In Anchorage, the Retired-Aged population (those aged 65 years and older) increased steadily in the twenty years from 2000 to 2021. Assuming that approximately half of Baby Boomers (those born between 1946 and 1965) have reached retirement age by 2020, we can expect this trend to continue for eight or nine years. So, this is good evidence that in Anchorage people are leaving the workforce due to retirement. But does this fully explain all the help-wanted signs?
Anchorage Population Decline
Anchorage population reached a peak in 2013 with 301,223 estimated population. By 2021 Anchorage’s estimated population was 289,697.
It’s interesting to note that Anchorage Working-Aged population (those 20 years to 64 years of age) also peaked in 2013 and declined to 2021.
In 2013, the Anchorage Working-Aged population was 191,106. By 2021, the Anchorage Working-Aged population was 176,374; a decline of 14,732. In the August 2022 edition of Trends, published by the State of Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development, it’s noted that Alaska has experienced “a net migration loss of 4500 people per year since [2010].” This combined with the number of people retiring – and also possibly migrating out of Alaska – appear to explain all the help-wanted signs spotted around Anchorage.